The three-bucket standard
| Bucket | Definition | Example from this site |
|---|---|---|
| Fact | Verifiable against a primary source, cited | “A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain to recover.” Arithmetic. |
| Convention | How the industry does it. Defensible, not proven optimal. | “Risk no more than 1% per trade.” Widely used, not a law of nature. |
| Opinion | Our judgement, argued, labelled as ours | “The evidence that order blocks outperform ordinary demand zones is anecdotal and selection-biased.” |
Sourcing
We cite primary sources, not each other. The RSI and ATR are cited to Wilder's New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), not the fifteenth paraphrase. Loss aversion to Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Turnover to the BIS Triennial Survey. Real yields to the U.S. Treasury.
Where we are uncertain, we say so. Where a relationship is a tendency and not a rule, we write “frequently,” not “always,” and we tell you to test it yourself.
Trade examples
Of the fourteen trade examples across our guides, six are losses. That ratio is deliberate.
Corrections log
Corrections are published, dated, and describe what was wrong. We do not silently edit.
| Date | Pages | What was wrong | What it says now |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | Homepage, Beginner Guide, Strategy & Risk | We wrote that a 45% win-rate system produces ten consecutive losses “close to certainly” across 300 trades. Building the losing-streak calculator and validating it against a 40,000-run Monte Carlo showed the true probability is about 29%. | Ten in a row is a career event: roughly one-in-three within any 300 trades, ~68% across 1,000. Seven in a row, at 88%, is the base case. |
| 10 Jul 2026 | Homepage, Strategy & Risk | We described the probability of seven consecutive losses at a 40% win rate over 200 trades as “comfortably above 50%.” Understated. | It is approximately 91%. Not a tail risk. The base case. |
You can reproduce both figures with our losing streak calculator. If it disagrees with anything we have written, the calculator is right and we want to know.
Use of AI
We disclose this because you should ask it of every site you read.
AI tools are used for drafting assistance, structural editing and computational verification. Every claim, number and judgement is reviewed by a human before publication, and the sourcing standard above applies regardless of how a sentence was first drafted.
AI is not used to generate trade examples, invent author credentials, produce fabricated backtest results, or write anything presented as lived experience.